POLITICS#MKT-9204
Will the US Federal Reserve lower rates by 50bps in Q4?
PROBABILITY
64.2%
VOLUME 24H
$2.4M
LIQUIDITY
$14.1M
END DATE
DEC 31
LIVE: 64.20%
YES
NO
AI ESTIMATE: 64%
Market Depth
$0.62$0.64$0.66
AI Confidence Interval
LOW (95% CI)
58.2%
MEAN
64.2%
HIGH (95% CI)
68.5%
Recent Activity
24H Trades: 12,402
| SIDE | PRICE | SHARES | TOTAL | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.642 | 12,500 | $8,025.00 | 12s ago |
| NO | $0.358 | 4,200 | $1,503.60 | 45s ago |
| YES | $0.641 | 1,100 | $705.10 | 1m ago |
psychology
Oracle Insights
RECENT • 2H AGO
Hawkish Sentiment Surge
Natural language processing of latest FOMC minutes indicates a 12% shift toward hawkish positioning. Market is underpricing persistent inflation data.
STABLE • 1D AGO
Whale Accumulation
Three institutional-grade wallets have entered large 'YES' positions totaling $1.2M. Historically, this signature precedes a 5% price appreciation.
LEGACY • 3D AGO
Initial Market Seeding
Correlation analysis with Treasury yields suggests a market fair value of 58%. Current 64% reflects a risk premium for upcoming labor data.